Решение задачи N4260 теория вероятностей Байеса

4260. The first factory manufactured 3000 devices, the second - 10000, the third - 1000 devices. The first factory produces an average of 1% of defective parts, the second - 0.5%, the third - 1.5%. At random, the selected device turned out to be defective. What is the likelihood that this device was manufactured by a second factory?

Detailed solution. Decorated in Microsoft Word 2003 (Quest decided to use the formula editor)