Решение задачи N3945 теория вероятностей Байеса

3945. The clock shop comes from three factories, with 40% coming from the first factory, 35% from the second, and 25% from the third. The probability of marriage in the first factory is 0.06, in the second - 0.07, and in the third - 0.08. The selected watches were defective. What is the probability that this watch is a) from the first factory? b) from the second factory? c) from the third factory?

Detailed solution. Decorated in Microsoft Word 2003 (Quest decided to use the formula editor)