Решение задачи N3712 теория вероятностей Байеса

3712. Two punchers stuffed on the same set of punch cards. The probability that the first puncher makes a mistake is 0.04; for the second perforator, this probability is 0.2. An error was found when checking the punched cards. Find the probability that the first puncher made a mistake.

Detailed solution. Decorated in Microsoft Word 2003 (Quest decided to use the formula editor)