Решение задачи N3653 теория вероятностей Байеса

3653. From the first automatic machine on the assembly conveyor 15% of parts come in, from the 2nd and 3rd - 46% and 39% respectively. The probability of issuing defective parts are for each of them, respectively, 0.25%, 0.35% and 0.15%. The part received for assembly turned out to be defective. Which machine was it most likely made on?

Detailed solution. Decorated in Microsoft Word 2003 (Quest decided to use the formula editor)