Решение задачи N3644 теория вероятностей Байеса

3644. The products made by three workers came to the Quality Controller, the first provided 20 products, the second 15 and the third 17. The probability that the product does not have a defect is: 0.6 for the first worker; for the second - 0.5; third - 0.4. The inspector checked one part, it turned out to be defective. What is the probability that the first worker made it?

Detailed solution. Decorated in Microsoft Word 2003 (Quest decided to use the formula editor)